Weis Squarely on Hot Seat in 2009

Earlier this month, Jeff Steck, at the excellent Blue-Gray Sky blog, produced a fascinating analysis that put a new spin on the old chicken-egg argument that seems to dominate any discussion about Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis’s recruiting versus his team’s on-field production. Steck took Rivals.com’s recruiting ratings (talent) and compared them to Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor Ratings (performance) to determine which schools overperform or underperform relative to their talent levels. This is a popular topic among Domers. Weis is either an excellent recruiter who has done a poor job developing his players, or a decent coach with below-average talent evaluation skills whose recruiting classes are chronically overrated by the Recruiting Industrial Complex. Steck’s analysis found that Boise State, BYU, TCU, Utah and West Virginia overperformed more than anyone, while Notre Dame fell in with fellow underperformers Miami, Florida State and Syracuse. Despite that bit of gloom, the analysis produced a silver lining. If Notre Dame performs as expected relative to its talent level next season, the Fighting Irish will finish No. 12 in the nation. If Notre Dame continues to underperform, however, Weis will probably lose his job. – SI